🏈 AFL Round Round 3 — Model Overview
Round Round 3 of the 2026 Australian Football League season is locked in and our XGBoost model has processed every fixture. Here's what the data is saying this week — plus our qualifying tips for the round.
Our recent AFL record: 8W/4L (67% strike rate) on qualifying tips over the last 4 weeks. Every result is tracked publicly at puntersedge.online/record.
How We Pick Our AFL Round Round 3 Tips
For each Round Round 3 fixture, the model analyses rolling form (last 3, 5 and 10 games), head-to-head records, home ground advantage, score differentials and current momentum. Only games where the model reaches 65% confidence or higher generate a tip — everything else is a NO BET.
This round the model has identified 10 qualifying tips. Here's the full breakdown:
Round Round 3 Fixture Tips
Geelong vs Adelaide
📅 Thursday 26 March at Kardinia Park
No qualifying tip for this match (model confidence below threshold).
Collingwood vs GWS
📅 Friday 27 March at Docklands
St Kilda vs Brisbane
📅 Saturday 28 March at Docklands
Fremantle vs Richmond
📅 Saturday 28 March at Perth Stadium
Essendon vs North Melbourne
📅 Saturday 28 March at Docklands
Port Adelaide vs West Coast
📅 Sunday 29 March at Adelaide Oval
Carlton vs Melbourne
📅 Sunday 29 March at M.C.G.
Brisbane vs Collingwood
📅 Thursday 02 April at Gabba
North Melbourne vs Carlton
📅 Friday 03 April at Docklands
Adelaide vs Fremantle
📅 Friday 03 April at Adelaide Oval
Richmond vs Port Adelaide
📅 Saturday 04 April at M.C.G.
No qualifying tip for this match (model confidence below threshold).
West Coast vs Sydney
📅 Saturday 04 April at Perth Stadium
Staking Guide for Round Round 3
As always, size your bets according to the tip tier:
- 💰 VALUE (1u) — 65–74% model confidence. Solid edge but some uncertainty.
- 💪 STRONG (2u) — 75–84% confidence. Double your standard unit.
- 🏆 BANKER (3u) — 85%+ confidence. Maximum recommended stake.
Keep your unit size at 1–2% of your total bankroll. Consistency over a full season is where the edge shows up — not in any single round.
Get Every AFL Tip This Season
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